I tweeted this, but thought it bore repeating with a little more detail.
I hear McCain supporters applaud Sarah Palin’s approval rating as a reason why they are happy she’s on the ticket. “Alaska is so big! And she’s got an 80% approval rating. How can that be bad?”
Here’s a breakdown you can give your friends and family living under this delusion:
The number of people who voted in Alaska’s gubernatorial race: 206, 232
The margin of Palin’s victory: 48.3% to 40.9%
The approximate number of votes Palin received (based on the above numbers): 99,610
Number if 80% of all Alaskan voters1 like Palin : 164,985.6
The population of Akron, OH in 2007: 207, 934
The population of Cleveland, OH in 2007 (does not include greater metropolitan area, which consists of suburbs not governed by Cleveland’s mayor): 438,042
The population of Columbus, OH (also does not include greater metro area): 747,755
Total population of Three Ohio cities: 1,393,731
Population of Alaska in 2006: 670,053
So, when someone tells you that Palin has an amazing approval rating let them know that less than 200,000 people agree with that assessment. Alaska is the largest state by land mass in the U.S. But when the number of voters is broken down, well, would Palin fare so well in a state with larger numbers of registered voters? If less than 200K people agree with her policies, why should we be happy about her approval rating?
Popularity: 62% [?]
Sphere: Related Content- in 2006 Gov. election [↩]
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5 Comments
One other thing to keep in mind is that polling is a “representative sample”. Meaning, the only talke to about 200 to 500 people, supposedly diverse enough to represent the views of everyone in the state. So realistically speacking, up to about 400 people think she’s doing a good job and they just figure the other 535642 people (based on the 2006 population) agree with them.
That’s what I really hate about polling.
That was amazing breakdown!
It really put into perspective for me… not that I needed it since there is no way in hell I would ever vote for M&P.
Thank you so much for this! A lot of times, people get so mixed up in the percentages and don’t think about the reality.
Vince,
I was going under the assumption that they were polling only those that were registered and/or voted in 2006. So, quite possibly the actual number is much lower. Still, I hate to hear how wonderful Alaskans think she is. So what? Those numbers should mean squat to people who live in larger metropolitan areas (and I wouldn’t consider Akron, OH to be that, though apparently that would make me wrong).
Monique,
Well, if you run into anyone citing her approval rating feel free to quote any of these numbers. Really. We need to get the word out.
Jazzy,
Welcome! I don’t think people understand the numbers behind the percentages. They think in terms of their own states. Most states are more populous than Alaska, so the numbers would be higher in their minds. Hopefully, someone will see the light with this (though I know the die-hards will just scoff).
Did they ask the mooses?